Why Alabama Could Pull the Road Upset (or Why Oklahoma Repeats)

The College Football Playoff first-round opener tonight pits No. 9 Alabama against No. 8 Oklahoma in Norman. The Sooners won the regular-season meeting 23-21 in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 15, but Alabama dominated most statistical categories that day. Now the Crimson Tide look for revenge on the road.

Here are the main reasons each team could win.

Case for Alabama Road Win

Alabama outgained Oklahoma 406-212 in total yards in the first game. The difference came down to three turnovers, including a pick-six that gave Oklahoma 17 points off mistakes.

Key factors favoring Alabama tonight:

• Turnover correction: Alabama ranks high in turnover margin overall. Quarterback Ty Simpson threw for over 300 yards last time but had costly interceptions. Fewer mistakes could flip the result.
• Returning players: Running back Jam Miller is back after missing time late in the season. A balanced run game would open the passing attack.
• Defensive strength: Alabama limits yards and big plays. Oklahoma has scored few touchdowns in recent games.
• Playoff experience: Head coach Kalen DeBoer and several players know high-stakes road environments.

If Alabama protects the ball and controls the line of scrimmage, the Tide can win 24-20.

Case for Oklahoma Repeat Win

Oklahoma gets the game at home in front of a loud crowd at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. The defense forced three turnovers last meeting and returns key pass-rushers like R. Mason Thomas.

Key factors favoring Oklahoma tonight:

• Home-field edge: The Sooners play strong defense in Norman and rank among the best at stopping the run.
• Quarterback management: John Mateer avoids big errors and lets the defense win games. The offense does not need many points.
• Momentum from first win: Beating Alabama on the road earlier gives confidence, especially with the same game plan.

If Oklahoma forces one or two turnovers again, the Sooners can repeat with a 20-17 victory.

SportsBrackets.net Pick

We lean Alabama. The talent gap shows when turnovers are even, and returning players give the offense balance. Expect a close, low-scoring game with the Tide pulling the road upset.

Get ready before kickoff at 8 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN:

Track perfect brackets on the NCAA tracker after the game.

Who do you have winning tonight?