RBA live: Interest rates announcement 

Welcome to our live coverage of the May RBA announcement. We will keep you updated with the announcement and expert commentary from our economists.

Latest big bank predictions 

1:01pm 

NAB has forecasted both a double rate cut today as well as three more cuts by December.  

Westpac is anticipating a cut today, as well as in August and November, with ANZ also predicting three more cuts this year. 

Commonwealth Bank – Australia’s largest lender – is forecasting one rate cut per quarter for 2025. 

Double rate cut rumours  

12:46pm

Talk of an 0.50% rate cut has been rife ever since the last board meeting, thanks in large part to comments first made by treasurer Jim Chalmers in the lead up to the election.  

National Australia Bank (NAB) is the only major bank predicting a double rate cut for today, with chief economist Sally Auld saying the RBA needs to quickly take its policy to a more neutral stance. 

Core inflation back in target band 

12:33pm

Trimmed mean inflation is currently at its lowest level by quarterly reading in more than three years.

Coming in at 2.9% for the year to 30 April, it is also back in the RBA’s 2-3% target range for the first time since December 2021. 

This fall to within target range is the key piece of the puzzle governor Michele Bullock has repeatedly said she is waiting to see. 

What are markets predicting for today?

12:22pm

Market predictions of a rate cut have been stable over the last two weeks on the Australian Stock Exchange rate indicator.

As of 19 May, the indicator shows the possibility of an 0.5% rate cut to 3.60% at 51%.

It’s cash rates decision day

12.02pm

Welcome to our live coverage

Hello and welcome to our live coverage of today’s cash rate decision.

After holding the cash rate at its last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely predicted to announce a cut later this afternoon.

The current cash rate is 4.10%.

Will RBA governor Michele Bullock lower rates? Picture: Monique Harmer

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