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Brisbane house and unit price growth are set to fall dramatically in the coming year according to KPMG.
New forecasts from KPMG predict a sharp dive in Brisbane house and unit price growth as soon as Christmas, with the cooling to be even more dramatic into 2026.
Unit prices – Brisbane’s biggest growth driver – are forecast to tank from 7.1 per cent growth in December this year to a mere 1.5 per cent by the end of 2026, making it the slowest property market among all Australian capitals.
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How the national situation is expected to pan out. Source: KPMG
KPMG’s latest six-monthly Residential Property Outlook expects house prices won’t fare much better, slowing to just 4.1 per cent growth by Christmas and sinking further to 3.1 per cent by December 2026.
KPMG chief economist Dr Brendan Rynne warned Brisbane was now close to peak.
“After a period of rapid price growth, the housing market is only set to grow by 3.1 per cent and units by just 1.5 per cent, with prices now outpacing demand and supply,” he said.
“Brisbane’s property market is close to reaching its peak for now and the city is no longer seen as an affordable alternative, meaning only modest growth is expected in the year ahead.”
PropTrack data shows in the past decade, house prices have grown by 117 per cent while units have jumped in median by 93 per cent. In July, unit prices were up 13 per cent year-on-year with house prices increasing 7.77 per cent in the same time frame.
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KPMG chief economist Dr Brendan Rynne.
Peak body Real Estate Institute of Queensland chief executive Antonia Mercorella said “while forecasting Brisbane’s property price growth is crystal ball gazing, it’s not surprising to see predictions of a moderating growth rate, simply because it would be hard to sustain the steep growth trajectory our city has experienced in recent years”.
“For many years our city was overlooked, but now we’ve turned a corner and have been playing catch up at a rapid rate. At some point, our rate of growth will have outpaced the market as we all face economic and affordability pressures.”
But Ms Mercorella is not prepared to call the end yet.
“Brisbane’s property fundamentals are still strong and our capital city has a bright future ahead with the Olympics on the horizon, so it’s hard to see how property prices wouldn’t continue to move in a northerly direction,” she said.
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REIQ CEO Antonia Mercorella.
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The KPMG report said “Brisbane’s housing market, previously buoyed by the prospect of the 2032 Olympics, is now at an inflection point”.
“Prices have outpaced demand and supply, and the city is no longer a clearly affordable alternative to Sydney. As a result, we expect modest growth in the year ahead.”
This is in sharp contract to the national outlook, with Dr Rynne upping the Australian housing growth forecast from 3.3 per cent to 4.9 per cent for 2025.
“You can really feel a renewed confidence in the market over the last few months in particular, with the quarterly growth rate hitting the highest level since this time last year,” Dr Rynne said of the national situation.
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