| Rank |
Group |
Teams |
Why this ranking |
| 1 |
D |
USA (Host), Australia, Paraguay, UEFA Playoff C |
Host advantage + two lower-ranked teams. USA expected to win group. |
| 2 |
A |
Mexico (Host), Colombia, South Africa, UEFA Playoff D |
Mexico at home + South Africa ranked 58th. |
| 3 |
C |
Spain, Morocco, Egypt, Jordan |
Spain clear favorite; Jordan (68th) is lowest-ranked qualified team. |
| 4 |
B |
Canada (Host), Switzerland, Qatar, UEFA Playoff A |
Canada at home; Qatar weak since 2022. |
| 5 |
L |
Italy, Austria, Saudi Arabia, UEFA Playoff B |
Italy rebuilding but still Pot 1; rest are manageable. |
| 6 |
E |
Argentina, Uruguay, Algeria, Haiti |
Argentina and Uruguay both top-10, but Haiti (89th) softens it. |
| 7 |
F |
France, Japan, Ecuador, New Zealand |
France heavy favorite; New Zealand ranked 94th. |
| 8 |
K |
Germany, South Korea, Panama, Ghana |
Germany should dominate; Panama and Ghana mid-tier. |
| 9 |
J |
Belgium, Iran, Scotland, Inter-confed Playoff 2 |
Belgium aging but still strong; three solid teams fighting for 2nd. |
| 10 |
I |
Portugal, Croatia, Uzbekistan, Inter-confed Playoff 1 |
Portugal and Croatia both top-15; Uzbekistan improving fast. |
| 11 |
G |
England, Senegal, Tunisia, Cape Verde |
England favorite, but Senegal (2022 quarterfinalist) and Tunisia make it tight. |
| 12 |
H |
Brazil, Netherlands, Côte d’Ivoire, Curaçao |
Brazil + Netherlands (top-10) + African champions Côte d’Ivoire. Clear Group of Death. |
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