It’s time. Time to start up our weekly 2025-26 NFL Playoff picture for you until the playoffs get going hot and heavy. This is our week 11 snapshot before Thursday Night Football kickoff. With Week 10 in the books, the postseason race is starting to take shape. We’re just seven weeks away from the regular-season finale, and everything matters for teams who are playing for something other than their position in the 2026 NFL Draft.
2025-26 NFL Playoff Picture
For the week 11 snapshot of the 2025-26 NFL Playoff picture, we’ll dive into the notional standings (complete with tiebreaker notes where needed), project the current playoff seeds for both conferences, and highlight who’s locked in, on the bubble, or fighting for their playoff lives. Remember, the top seven teams from each conference punch their ticket: division winners claim seeds 1-4 (seeded by record and tiebreakers), while the top three non-division winners earn wild-card spots 5-7. We also have the 2025-26 NFL Playoff Schedule and printable NFL Playoff bracket posted up for you to plan out the postseason possibilities.
AFC Playoff Picture: Colts Eying #1 Seed
The AFC Playoff Picture is tight at the top, with three teams tied at 8-2 leading their divisions. But tiebreakers are king here: head-to-head records, conference win percentage, and strength of victory separate the contenders. The Indianapolis Colts hold the #1 seed thanks to wins over both the Patriots and Broncos in their head-to-head matchups this season. Meanwhile, the wild-card hunt is wide open, with the Chargers and Bills looking solid but a logjam at 5-4 keeping Jacksonville, Kansas City, and even Pittsburgh’s divisional hold in flux.
AFC Standings (Through Week 10)
| Division | Team | W | L | T | PCT | Tiebreaker Notes |
| East | New England Patriots | 8 | 2 | 0 | .800 | Clinched div; #2 seed via conference record edge over DEN |
| Buffalo Bills | 6 | 3 | 0 | .667 | Wild-card lock | |
| Miami Dolphins | 3 | 7 | 0 | .300 | Eliminated | |
| New York Jets | 2 | 7 | 0 | .222 | Eliminated | |
| North | Pittsburgh Steelers | 5 | 4 | 0 | .556 | Div leader; #4 seed |
| Baltimore Ravens | 4 | 5 | 0 | .444 | On the bubble | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3 | 6 | 0 | .333 | Long shot | |
| Cleveland Browns | 2 | 7 | 0 | .222 | Eliminated | |
| South | Indianapolis Colts | 8 | 2 | 0 | .800 | #1 seed (H2H wins over NE/DEN) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 | 4 | 0 | .556 | #7 wild card (better div record than KC) | |
| Houston Texans | 4 | 5 | 0 | .444 | Needs help | |
| Tennessee Titans | 1 | 8 | 0 | .111 | Eliminated | |
| West | Denver Broncos | 8 | 2 | 0 | .800 | #3 seed (lost H2H to IND) |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 7 | 3 | 0 | .700 | #5 wild card | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 5 | 4 | 0 | .556 | Bubble (lost H2H to JAX) | |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2 | 7 | 0 | .222 | Eliminated |
Projected AFC Playoff Seeds:
- Indianapolis Colts (South, 8-2) – Bye week; their defense is suffocating QBs league-wide.
- New England Patriots (East, 8-2) – Drake Maye’s arm is launching them toward a home playoff game.
- Denver Broncos (West, 8-2) – Sean Payton’s squad is rolling, but that Colts loss stings.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (North, 5-4) – They need to hold off Baltimore’s late surge.
- Los Angeles Chargers (Wild Card, 7-3) – Justin Herbert’s efficiency has them as road warriors.
- Buffalo Bills (Wild Card, 6-3) – Josh Allen’s MVP case grows; they’re the hottest team in the East.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (Wild Card, 5-4) – Trevor Lawrence is heating up – just in time?
In the Hunt: Kansas City (5-4) – One win behind JAX, but a tougher remaining schedule could doom the defending champs.
On the Bubble: Baltimore (4-5) – Still alive for a div flip, but time’s ticking.
Eliminated: Dolphins, Jets, Browns, Titans, Raiders.
NFC Playoff Picture: A Three-Way Tango at the Top
The NFC Playoff picture is even messier when it comes to ties. The West’s Seattle Seahawks edge the Rams for the division lead on head-to-head (a 27-24 thriller in Week 4), while Philadelphia’s conference record vaults them to #2 over LAR. The North is a coin flip between Detroit and Chicago (Lions win tiebreaker on strength of victory), bumping the Bears into wild-card contention. Tampa Bay’s surprising South dominance keeps them in the mix, but the 49ers are lurking as the final wild card.
NFC Standings (Through Week 10)
| Division | Team | W | L | T | PCT | Tiebreaker Notes |
| East | Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | 2 | 0 | .778 | #2 seed (conf record > LAR) |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3 | 5 | 1 | .389 | Fading fast | |
| Washington Commanders | 3 | 7 | 0 | .300 | Playoff long shot | |
| New York Giants | 2 | 8 | 0 | .200 | Eliminated | |
| North | Detroit Lions | 6 | 3 | 0 | .667 | Div leader (#4 seed via SOV over CHI) |
| Chicago Bears | 6 | 3 | 0 | .667 | #6 wild card | |
| Green Bay Packers | 5 | 3 | 1 | .611 | Bubble team | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 4 | 5 | 0 | .444 | Needs miracle | |
| South | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6 | 3 | 0 | .667 | #3 seed (H2H sweep of ATL) |
| Carolina Panthers | 5 | 5 | 0 | .500 | Sneaky contender | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3 | 6 | 0 | .333 | Out of gas | |
| New Orleans Saints | 2 | 8 | 0 | .200 | Eliminated | |
| West | Seattle Seahawks | 7 | 2 | 0 | .778 | #1 seed (H2H win over LAR) |
| Los Angeles Rams | 7 | 2 | 0 | .778 | #5 wild card | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 6 | 4 | 0 | .600 | #7 wild card | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 6 | 0 | .333 | Rebuilding mode |
Projected NFC Playoff Seeds:
- Seattle Seahawks (West, 7-2) – Geno Smith has them poised for a deep run.
- Philadelphia Eagles (East, 7-2) – Saquon Barkley’s ground game is a cheat code.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (South, 6-3) – Baker Mayfield’s redemption arc continues.
- Detroit Lions (North, 6-3) – Dan Campbell’s crew is built for January chaos.
- Los Angeles Rams (Wild Card, 7-2) – Matthew Stafford’s precision passing keeps them elite.
- Chicago Bears (Wild Card, 6-3) – Caleb Williams is flashing superstar potential.
- San Francisco 49ers (Wild Card, 6-4) – Injuries tested them, but the core is reloading.
In the Hunt: Green Bay (5-3-1) – Jordan Love could steal a spot with a hot streak.
On the Bubble: Carolina (5-5) – Bryce Young’s growth makes them dangerous spoilers.
Eliminated: Giants, Saints, Cardinals, Falcons.
The Road to Super Bowl LX
What a wild Week 10 it was – upsets, heroics, and enough drama to fuel a dozen podcasts (speaking of which, tune in tonight as I break this all down on the mic!). The AFC feels like the Colts to lose, but don’t sleep on those Broncos. In the NFC, it’s anyone’s conference with that West-East deadlock.
With 11 games left for most teams, anything can happen; injuries, hot streaks, you name it. Check out our 2025-26 NFL Playoff Schedule to mark your calendars and our Playoff Bracket to start filling in those seeds. Who’s your pick for Super Bowl champ? One of our favorite Cappers out there to check out is Philly Special Bets. No secret on his favorite team too 🙂 We’ll give you a hint here.
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